Clinton enters fall with key advantages in White House race

U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks at Futuramic Tool & Engineering in Warren, Michigan August 11, 2016. Photo by Chris Keane/Reuters

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Two months from Election Day, Hillary Clinton has a clear edge over Donald Trump in nearly every measure traditionally used to gauge success in presidential races.

She's raising huge sums of money and flooding airwaves with television advertisements. A sophisticated data team with a history of winning White House contests is meticulously tracking voters in key battleground states. Clinton also has multiple paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win in November - so many that she could lose Ohio and Florida and still become America's first female president.

But Trump's campaign believes there are pockets of voters eager to be persuaded not to back Clinton. While Trump squandered a summer's worth of opportunities to court those voters, his campaign heads into the fall suddenly confident in its ability to make up lost ground.

Trump aides were gleeful Friday over the release of FBI notes regarding Clinton's controversial email practices while secretary of state. His campaign plans to come out of the Labor Day weekend wielding the report as a warning about the Democrat's judgment.

Getting Trump to make that kind of consistent case against Clinton has been a herculean task for much of the campaign. But advisers say he's more receptive to his new leadership team's more scripted approach, mostly because it's coincided with a tightening in the public polls he monitors obsessively.

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“There's a renewed focus on Hillary Clinton and her problems, which I think has been beneficial,” said Matt Borges, the chairman of Ohio's Republican Party. “He's got to sustain this for another couple weeks.”

Still, Trump aides acknowledge that the brash businessman needs to more to address his own shaky standing with voters.

Trump's campaign has spent no general election money on positive, biographical ads, despite having plenty of cash to do so. Efforts to highlight a warmer side of the New York real estate developer at the GOP convention were quickly overshadowed by flaps of his own making. He's also angered anew Hispanics voters, a fast-growing segment of the electorate that Republicans are desperate to draw from, by holding fast to his tough immigration policies.

“He's running up against a population trend and a demographic reality,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist.

If Trump can reshape the race, he'll need to do so quickly. Early voting begins in some states this month. North Carolinians can start submitting absentee ballots Friday. In Ohio - a state no Republican has won the White House without - people can start voting on Oct. 12, a week before the last of three presidential debates.

Both campaigns expect enormous audiences for the debates. Clinton, who has been in intensive study sessions with her debate team in recent days, is sure to face higher expectations from voters. Trump's political inexperience leaves him with a lower bar to clear.

Privately, Republican leaders say it will take more than strong debates for their nominee to alter a race that appears to be leaning in Clinton's favor. While Trump publicly maintains support from numerous high-ranking GOP officials, a striking number of discussions among Republicans in Washington often begin with an assumption that Clinton will be president come January.

Trump advisers vigorously dispute that the race has slipped from their grasp. They contend most Americans are just now tuning into the presidential campaign in a serious way.

“We're very much on schedule to do what we need to do to turn out the vote for Mr. Trump,” said Bob Paduchik, Trump's Ohio state director and one of the most experienced operatives on the Republican's staff. Paduchik said Trump's efforts heading into the fall are focused primarily on rallying “disaffected Democrats and independents.”

Clinton's campaign has long argued that Trump is overestimating the number of voters willing to switch from voting Democratic in presidential election to Republican. But Clinton aides are monitoring movement toward a pair of third party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein.

“There's no question you've got two candidates who are both underwater on their favorables right now,” Joel Benenson, Clinton's chief strategist and pollster, said by way of explaining the appeal of Johnson and Stein. “I think it's important as this gets closer that people understand the stakes and the importance of their vote.”

Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine will have an all-star stable of Democrats making that case on their behalf through the fall.

President Barack Obama is expected to spend much of October campaigning for Clinton, focusing in particular on increasing turnout among young people, blacks and college-educated whites. Vice President Joe Biden will camp out in working class areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Clinton's vanquished primary rival, will be rallying the young voters and liberals who backed his campaign.

Trump will be largely on his own, with the exception of running mate Mike Pence and a few loyal supporters such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. In the battle for control of the Senate, most Republicans in competitive races have stayed away from Trump.

Democrats now see a clear path to taking back control of the Senate, with party leaders identifying Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as favorable opportunities to pick up seats. Democrats are also confident that if Clinton wins in some of the most contested state such as New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada, she'll bring along the party's Senate candidates.

There are bright spots for Republicans in the Senate contests. Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio is running a campaign that mirrors Clinton's more than Trump's - disciplined, well-funded, and heavily centered on data - and appears on track to hold his seat, even if Clinton carries the state in the presidential race.

Associated Press writer Chad Day in Washington contributed to this report.

The post Clinton enters fall with key advantages in White House race appeared first on PBS NewsHour.

Big Jump in Foreign Buyers at Latest Treasury Auction Is a 'Hint'

Wednesday's Treasury auction of five-year notes went well thanks to record demand from indirect bidders, mostly foreign central banks.

The successful auction plus the strong foreign buying from foreign central banks suggests the Fed won't hike rates soon, strategists say. Mark Grant of Hilltop Securities headlined his report "Hint, Hint."

Here's What Gymnastics Judges See That You Don't

If you watched the U.S. women kick international butt in the Rio Olympics on Sunday, you're all set to watch them go for gold in the team finals on Tuesday. But after seeing Simone Biles's atmospherically high vault or Madison Kocian's slick bars routine, you were a little confused: The commentators kept talking about all the things that were wrong. And then the scores popped up, and the judges had found deductions for routines that, to your eyes, looked pretty much perfect.

At which point you probably turned to the person next to you and demanded, “Where the hell are all these deductions coming from?!”

If that's you, you're not alone.

Me: "Holy shit that was dope she did like 5 flips."

Commentator: "She's definitely going to face a deduction there."

- Vann R. Newkirk II (@fivefifths) August 8, 2016

It turns out that in gymnastics ― as in real life ― a woman can never be truly perfect. There are always faults to be found and nits to be picked. But you have to know what you're looking for.

Here are a few things to watch for if you're trying to understand why Olympics judges aren't handing out perfect scores like a bar giving out free drinks on ladies' night. Most of these you can only spot in the slow-motion replay, but international gymnastics judges are used to watching routines fly past them and picking out what a gymnast got right and wrong. 

First, the easy stuff: wobbles big and small. This means anything from a little jerk to the side, sometimes called a “balance check,” to a serious break in a gymnast's body line and interruption of her routine as she attempts to stay on the balance beam. Wobbles are penalized with deductions of 0.10 for little ones, 0.30 for medium ones, and 0.50 for the big ones you'll find hard to miss. The Code of Points, the 200-plus page rule book for gymnastics competitions, calls wobbles “additional movements to maintain balance.” People who are rooting for a gymnast who's doing one call them “tiny panic attacks.”

Next up, form errors. This can mean a separation of the legs when they're supposed to be together, which you'll find on all four events. Look out for it especially when gymnasts are rotating forward twice ― like in a bars dismount, or in a tumbling pass ― when they'll often do something called “cowboying.” That means they pull their legs apart and their knees up toward their ears, instead of rotating in the correct tuck position, with their knees together and tight to their chest. This form error can be put down to simple physics: Cowboying makes it easier to rotate faster.

You'll also find leg separations on bars, where lots of time is meant to be spent in a perfectly straight handstand position. As on vault, you may actually be able to spot those better than the judges can, because the camera gets a different angle than they do, and they don't use instant replay. Form errors can also mean bent knees when they're supposed to be straight. You'll often find these on vault and floor, where gymnasts tend to bend their knees early in anticipation of landing.

Once a gymnast is done being penalized for having her legs too separated, she can move on to being docked points for not having them separated enough. Split jumps and leaps, of which there are a lot in gymnastics, are meant to hit 180 degrees or more, and if they don't, the deduction can be 0.10 or 0.30, depending on how egregiously un-split the leap is.

Next, unpointed toes. You'll find them on bars, where gymnasts often flex their feet to avoid hitting them on the bar, or on leaps and jumps on floor and beam. Each time a gymnast fails to point her toes, she gets a 0.10 deduction. 

Another common place for deductions is landing errors, whether it's a dismount or a tumbling pass. That means steps out or slight hops (0.10 for each one), landing with legs or feet apart (0.10 each time), or landing bent over with a low chest (0.10 or 0.30, depending on how low she goes).

As you can see, it's a veritable cornucopia of critique, and we're not close to done.

If a gymnast attempts a twisting element (on floor, vault, beam or in a bars dismount), the twist must be clearly completed, or the judges consider it downgraded, say, from 3 twists to 2 1/2, which means the deduction is taken out of the difficulty score ― a gymnast only get credit for twists she completed, not ones she merely attempted. Watch the feet in twists, to spot whether they're crossed or separated in the air (0.10) or if they're not facing straight ahead when she lands, a sign she under-twisted.

Then, there's missed connections ― the best thing about Craigslist, but one of the hardest things in gymnastics. You'll notice these most on beam, where gymnasts are required to complete series of tricks without a break between them. According to the code, that means without a stop or a step in between, or obvious loss of balance, or obvious preparation before the next trick. It can be hard to tell where the line is here. A missed connection can be a lot like pornography ― you know it when you see it.

Another mistake that's easy to spot if you know what you're looking for is a long pause before attempting a trick, whether it's a wait before dismount from the beam, or in the corner before a tumbling pass on floor. Each time you do this, you get a deduction of 0.10. On floor, if you wait on two feet too many times, or take small shuffling steps to adjust your position before you tumble, that's an additional 0.10 each time. 

And we can't overlook insufficient height in flight elements. Those huge release moves ― where a gymnast lets go of the bar and either flies over it or does a somersault and then grabs the same bar again ― are incredibly impressive to watch. Judges are less easily impressed, though, and if the gymnast doesn't get enough air, they'll dock her 0.10 or 0.30, depending on how close to the bar she is.

Finally, though this list is far from exhaustive, don't forget excessive leg tapping. When a gymnast is winding up for a dismount on bars, she'll often do one or two full swings around the high bar ― those are called “giants.” Notice if, at the bottom of the giant, she lets her feet trail and then “taps” them up using her hips. This move adds more power to the giant and thus to the dismount, but if a tap is too big, the judges will take off 0.10.

These errors are hard to spot, unless you've had a lot of practice. But once you know what the judges are looking for, it's easier to understand how a perfect execution score inevitably eludes every gymnast.

In gymnastics ― as in life ― no one is perfect, and everyone makes mistakes. So, go forth and nitpick ― or, just sit back, ignore the little mistakes, and enjoy the sight of dozens of mindbogglingly strong women trying to defy gravity and, for a few seconds, actually succeeding.

 

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Partnering with Capital One to Launch Payment Rewards

When you Uber, chances are you don't think about your payment method very often. After all, you can hop in and hop out without ever having to pull out your wallet.

But sometimes how you pay for your Uber rides can make a difference - and today that's certainly the case. We're excited to announce that we've partnered with Capital One® to bring a new, rewarding experience to riders. Now, every 10th ride is free (up to $15) when you pay with a Capital One Quicksilver® or QuicksilverOne® card through March 2017.

And to give you more visibility and control over these benefits, we're introducing Payment Rewards - a way to discover, track, and redeem rewards right in the Uber app.

Here's how the new Payment Rewards in-app experience works:

Discover rewards: Access Payment Rewards from the payment menu in the app. Tap Unlock ride discounts to learn more about our first benefit, powered by Capital One. Don't have a Quicksilver card? Apply now!

Track progress: Once you have a Quicksilver card on file, you'll see a progress bar showing how close you are to earning your next free ride, both when requesting a ride and in the payment menu.

Redeem rewards: See when you have a free ride available and control when you use it. If you don't want to use it right then, simply tap Save for Later.

We're always looking for ways to make riding with Uber even more rewarding. Stay tuned for more from Payment Rewards in the future.

P.S.- Make sure you have the latest version of the Uber app to track your progress and redeem your free rides!

 

 

For an Income Boost, Look to Preferreds

Offering 5% yields and backed by high-quality banks, preferred stocks are a good way to boost income in a diversified fixed-income portfolio, writes Brian Rehling, global fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo, in a May 24 report.

But he has a few caveats. He doesn't think investors should overdo it and he doesn't think a lot of price appreciation is ahead. Read More»